基于梯度提升决策树的车轮轮缘厚度磨耗预测

轮对在列车走行过程中起着导向、承受以及传递载荷的作用，其踏面及轮缘磨耗对地铁列车运行安全性和钢轨的寿命都将产生重要影响。根据地铁列车车轮磨耗机理，分析车轮尺寸数据特点，针对轮缘厚度这一型面参数，基于梯度提升决策树算法构建轮缘厚度磨耗预测模型。在该模型的基础上，任意选取某轮对数据进行验证分析，结果表明：基于梯度提升决策树的轮对磨耗预测模型具有较好的预测精度，可预测出1~6个月的轮缘厚度变化趋势范围，预测时间范围较长，可为地铁维保部门对轮对的维修方式由状态修转为预防修提供指导性建议。     

A signal adaptive diffusion filter for video coding: Mathematical framework and complexity reductions

In this paper we combine video compression and modern image processing methods. We construct novel iterative filter methods for prediction signals based on Partial Differential Equation (PDE) based methods. The mathematical framework of the employed diffusion filter class is given and some desirable properties are stated. In particular, two types of diffusion filters are constructed: a uniform diffusion filter using a fixed filter mask and a signal adaptive diffusion filter that incorporates the structures of the underlying prediction signal. The latter has the advantage of not attenuating existing edges while the uniform filter is less complex. The filters are embedded into a software based on HEVC with additional QTBT (Quadtree plus Binary Tree) and MTT (Multi-Type-Tree) block structure. In this setting, several measures to reduce the coding complexity of the tool are introduced, discussed and tested thoroughly. The coding complexity is reduced by up to 70% while maintaining over 80% of the gain. Overall, the diffusion filter method achieves average bitrate savings of 2.27% for Random Access having an average encoder runtime complexity of 119% and 117% decoder runtime complexity. For individual test sequences, results of 7.36% for Random Access are accomplished.     

基于启发式BP算法的软件缺陷预测模型

针对软件缺陷预测时缺陷数据集中存在的类别分布不平衡问题，结合上采样算法SMOTE与Edited Nearest Neighbor (ENN) 数据清洗策略，提出了一种基于启发式BP神经网络算法的软件缺陷预测模型。模型中采用上采样算法SMOTE增加少数类样本以改善项目中的数据不平衡状况，并针对采样后数据噪声问题进行ENN数据清洗，结合基于启发式学习的模拟退火算法改进四层BP神经网络后建立分类预测模型，在AEEEM数据库上使用交叉验证对提出的方案进行性能评估，结果表明所提出的算法能够有效提高模型在预测类不平衡数据时的分类准确度。     

Evolving an Accurate Decision Tree-Based Model for Predicting Carbon Dioxide Solubility in Polymers

Solubility is one of the most indispensable physicochemical properties determining the compatibility of components of a blending system. Research has been focused on the solubility of carbon dioxide in polymers as a significant application of green chemistry. To replace costly and time-consuming experiments, a novel solubility prediction model based on a decision tree, called the stochastic gradient boosting algorithm, was proposed to predict CO₂ solubility in 13 different polymers, based on 515 published experimental data lines. The results indicate that the proposed ensemble model is an effective method for predicting the CO₂ solubility in various polymers, with highly satisfactory performance and high efficiency. It produces more accurate outputs than other methods such as machine learning schemes and an equation of state approach.     

A bat-neural network multi-agent system (BNNMAS) for stock price prediction: Case study of DAX stock price

Creating an intelligent system that can accurately predict stock price in a robust way has always been a subject of great interest for many investors and financial analysts. Predicting future trends of financial markets is more remarkable these days especially after the recent global financial crisis. So traders who access to a powerful engine for extracting helpful information throw raw data can meet the success. In this paper we propose a new intelligent model in a multi-agent framework called bat-neural network multi-agent system (BNNMAS) to predict stock price. The model performs in a four layer multi-agent framework to predict eight years of DAX stock price in quarterly periods. The capability of BNNMAS is evaluated by applying both on fundamental and technical DAX stock price data and comparing the outcomes with the results of other methods such as genetic algorithm neural network (GANN) and some standard models like generalized regression neural network (GRNN), etc. The model tested for predicting DAX stock price a period of time that global financial crisis was faced to economics. The results show that BNNMAS significantly performs accurate and reliable, so it can be considered as a suitable tool for predicting stock price specially in a long term periods.     

基于因子分析法的地区财政支出状况评价

以2012年我国财政支出数据为依据进行建模分析，并对我国目前各地财政支出状况给出科学的解释和说明。财政支出是一种经济行为，财政支出结构对于一个国家的经济发展起着至关重要的影响。运用因子分析法算出因子得分，对我国财政支出数据进行分析发现：我国各地区财政支出仍然相当不平衡，要实行财政转移以缩小各地财力差异。     

Time series forecasting with a neuro-fuzzy modeling scheme

Time series forecasting concerns the prediction of future values based on the observations previously taken at equally spaced time points. Statistical methods have been extensively applied in the forecasting community for the past decades. Recently, machine learning techniques have drawn attention and useful forecasting systems based on these techniques have been developed. In this paper, we propose an approach based on neuro-fuzzy modeling for time series prediction. Given a predicting sequence, the local context of the sequence is located in the series of the observed data. Proper lags of relevant variables are selected and training patterns are extracted. Based on the extracted training patterns, a set of TSK fuzzy rules are constructed and the parameters involved in the rules are refined by a hybrid learning algorithm. The refined fuzzy rules are then used for prediction. Our approach has several advantages. It can produce adaptive forecasting models. It works for univariate and multivariate prediction. It also works for one-step as well as multi-step prediction. Several experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.     

Human mobility synthesis using matrix and tensor factorizations

Human mobility prediction is of great advantage in route planning and schedule management. However, mobility data is a high-dimensional dataset in which multi-context prediction is difficult in a single model. Mobility data can usually be expressed as a home event, a work event, a shopping event and a traveling event. Previous works have only been able to learn and predict one type of mobility event and then integrate them. As the tensor model has a strong ability to describe high-dimensional information, we propose an algorithm to predict human mobility in tensors of location context data. Using the tensor decomposition method, we extract human mobility patterns with multiple expressions and then synthesize the future mobility event based on mobility patterns. The experiment is based on real-world location data and the results show that the tensor decomposition method has the highest accuracy in terms of prediction error among the three methods. The results also prove the feasibility of our multi-context prediction model.     

Models for solar radiation prediction based on different measurement sites

The modeling of solar radiation for forecasting its availability is a key tool for managing photovoltaic (PV) plants and, hence, is of primary importance for energy production in a smart grid scenario. However, the variability of the weather phenomena is an unavoidable obstacle in the prediction of the energy produced by the solar radiation conversion. The use of the data collected in the past can be useful to capture the daily and seasonal variability, while measurement of the recent past can be exploited to provide a short term prediction. It is well known that a good measurement of the solar radiation requires not only a high class radiometer, but also a correct management of the instrument. In order to reduce the cost related to the management of the monitoring apparatus, a solution could be to evaluate the PV plant performance using data collected by public weather station installed near the plant. In this paper, two experiments are conducted. In the first, the plausibility of the short term prediction of the solar radiation, based on data collected in the near past on the same site is investigated. In the second experiment, the same prediction is operated using data collected by a public weather station located at ten kilometers from the solar plant. Several prediction techniques belonging from both computational intelligence and statistical fields have been challenged in this task. In particular, Support Vector Machine for Regression, Extreme Learning Machine and Autoregressive models have been used and compared with the persistence and the k-NN predictors. The prediction accuracy achieved in the two experimental conditions are then compared and the results are discussed.     

综放高瓦斯矿井煤层瓦斯涌出量综合预测

为了成功预测竹林山煤矿综放高瓦斯矿井大采高工作面煤层瓦斯涌出量,以主采3号煤层为主要研究对象,针对3号煤层以往开采情况,通过布设测点测量其煤层瓦斯含量和了解相邻矿井瓦斯含量,采用分源预测法、回归法及统计法等预测方法得到了3号煤层瓦斯含量的分布规律,并绘制了3号煤层的瓦斯含量等值线图。对矿井不同生产时期的瓦斯含量进行预测,得到了生产前期、中期及后期采区的最大绝对瓦斯涌出量和最大相对瓦斯涌出量,说明了竹林山煤矿各个时期均属于高瓦斯矿井。